Megatrends Lifecycles (MLC)

While working on a megatrends research project with a leading international ICT player I realized that there is an interesting parallel that can be drawn between the infamous Product Lifecycle with its four traditionally-represented phases of Introduction, Growth, Maturity and Decline and the apparent lifecycle megatrends go through.

I nicknamed this the Megatrends Lifecycle of MLC and drawing this parallel I termed the four equivalent phases as:
1/ Emergence - convergence of trends to give rise to a megatrend
2/ Prevalence - rapid manifestation of the megatrend and the spread of its effects on business, industries, lifestyles, etc. Legal frameworks strive to catch up to the manifestations of the megatrend and first-mover advantages go to the competitors who are able to "ride the wave" successfully
3/ Predominance - the megatrends effects are felt in all areas of society and on a far-reaching demographic/geographical scale. Legislation has been able to catch up to the phenomenon and its externalities while competition moves to lobbying and influencing/establishing industry standards
4/ Evanescence - the megatrend is so widespread that it begins to dissolve into a new and ubiquitous "normal".

Interestingly, the same critiques that are made of the PLC (notably by T. Levitt of Harvard and marketing myopia fame) also hold true of the MLC, notably the ability to establish the analysis only after the fact with hindsight. Thus it is more useful for understanding the past than anticipating the future - which is what the analysis of megatrends purports to do...